The Slow Motion Train Wreck
Experts warn of a “Voluntary Trade Reset Recession” hitting by summer 2025. Rising credit card delinquencies, supply chain collapse, and consumer stress signal a downturn unlike anything seen in decades. Learn what to expect and how Americans may be caught off guard.
Recession is coming - full steam ahead
We're watching an economic disaster unfold in slow motion. The train has left the station, the brakes are shot, and we're speeding toward an inevitable collision. What makes this particularly unsettling is that we've had front-row seats to this approaching catastrophe for over a month now. The collision is unavoidable, but the full impact won't be felt by most consumers for months – with the economic damage becoming increasingly contorted and mangled as the year progresses.
The False Dawn Before the Storm
The most troubling aspect of this economic train wreck is the false signal it's currently sending. Apollo Global Management's latest report reveals a clear pattern of pre-tariff stockpiling and accelerated purchasing - creating a temporary economic mirage (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.4).
Since the announcement of the "Liberation day tariffs" on April 2nd, businesses have been frantically stockpiling inventory, consumers have accelerated major purchases, and shipping lanes from China have been operating at peak capacity. This creates the temporary illusion of economic vitality.
The political talking heads are already pointing to these figures as evidence that the tariffs aren't harming the economy. "See how resilient American business is?" they crow. "Consumer confidence remains strong!"
But this is merely economic cause and effect – the momentary demand surge before the inevitable contraction.
The Cascade Failure Has Already Begun
According to Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok, what we're witnessing is the first phase of a "Voluntary Trade Reset Recession." The timeline is already in motion (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.4):
April: Container departures from China slowing rapidly
Early/Mid-May: Containerships to US ports coming to a complete halt
Mid/Late May: Trucking demand collapsing
Late May/Early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail sectors
Summer 2025: Full-blown recession
The container shipping data already shows the dramatic contraction underway (Apollo Global Management, 2025, pp.18-19). Manufacturing orders are collapsing (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.7). CEO confidence is plummeting (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.16). The Logistics Managers' Index is in free fall (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.17).
The Consumer Tipping Point
What's particularly telling in Apollo's data is the consumer stress indicators. Credit card delinquency rates are rising sharply (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.31). The percentage of accounts making only minimum payments has reached levels not seen since before the pandemic (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.30).
Consumer sentiment has crashed across all income brackets, with expectations for business conditions reaching historically pessimistic levels. Tourism is declining, with particularly sharp drops in international arrivals – the Las Vegas visitor metrics look eerily similar to patterns seen before previous downturns (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.32).
What Comes After the Crash?
The question isn't whether recession will hit – Apollo's economists are confident it will arrive by summer – but how deep and prolonged the downturn will be.
What most Americans don't yet grasp is how dramatically different this coming recession will be from anything we've experienced in the last fifty years. Since the 1970s, every significant economic downturn has been met with massive government stimulus spending. Not this time.
The perfect storm we're facing combines recession with inflation and austerity (Apollo Global Management, 2025, p.39). The Fed can't easily cut rates without fueling more inflation. Government spending is increasingly constrained. And we're deliberately dismantling the very global trade networks that have kept consumer prices low for decades.
When the full force of this economic restructuring hits, most Americans will be caught completely unprepared. Accustomed to government interventions that cushion the blow of recessions, they'll instead face a harsh economic reality that more closely resembles the pre-New Deal era than anything in living memory – a return to something more akin to what Mark Twain dubbed "the Gilded Age."
The question isn't just how many passengers realize a crash is coming – it's whether they understand that the safety systems they've counted on for generations have been disabled.
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